Here's my latest Mind and Matter column in the Wall Street
Journal, with added links and charts. On interglacials.
The entire 10,000-year history of civilization has happened in an
unusually warm interlude in the Earth's recent history. Over the
past million years, it has been as warm as this or warmer for less
than 10% of the time, during 11 brief episodes known as
interglacial periods. One theory holds that agriculture and dense
settlement were impossible in the volatile, generally dry and
carbon-dioxide-starved climates of the ice age, when crop plants
would have grown more slowly and unpredictably even in warmer
regions.
This warm spell is already 11,600 years old, and it must surely,
in the normal course of things, come to an end. In the early 1970s,
after two decades of slight cooling, many scientists were convinced
that the moment was at hand. They were "increasingly apprehensive,
for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger
of another ice age," said Time in 1974. The "almost unanimous" view
of meteorologists was that the cooling trend would "reduce
agricultural productivity for the rest of the century," and "the
resulting famines could be catastrophic," said Newsweek in
1975.
Since then, of course, warmth has returned, probably driven at
least partly by man-made carbon-dioxide emissions. A new paper,
from universities in Cambridge, London and Florida, drew headlines
last week for arguing that these emissions may avert the return of
the ice age. Less noticed was the fact that the authors, by analogy
with a previous warm spell 780,000 years ago that's a "dead ringer"
for our own, expect the next ice age to start "within about 1,500
years." Hardly the day after tomorrow.